Climate experts from across East Africa have shared their seasonal outlook for the coming rainy season, giving farmers, herders and aid planners an early picture of what conditions may look like in the months ahead.

The outlook, presented at a regional forum, combines information from weather models, ocean temperatures and local observations. Forecasters stressed that it describes broad probabilities rather than exact predictions, and that conditions can vary widely even between neighbouring districts.

Turning forecasts into action

Agricultural specialists at the forum urged farmers to use the outlook when choosing seeds and planting dates, and to prepare for both heavy downpours and dry spells. Livestock experts advised herders to plan water and grazing routes early. "A forecast only helps if it reaches the farmer in time and in a language they understand," said one agricultural adviser.

Several countries in the region now share forecasts through radio programmes, community meetings and text messages in local languages, including Somali, an approach participants said should be expanded.

Some participants also stressed the value of traditional knowledge, such as how elders read changes in wind, stars and animal behaviour. Combining these local signs with scientific forecasts, they said, could make advice more trusted in rural communities.

Forecasters will issue monthly updates as the season develops, and national weather services are expected to publish more detailed local guidance in the coming weeks.

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